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The 2026 verdict
FAIRLY PRICED
+2
Model #82 · ADP 84

Justin Herbert's ADP of 83.7 sits within a round of our model's #82 overall rank. The market has him about right.

Our model projects Justin Herbert for 280 PPR points in 2026 (16.5 per week), ranking him QB13 and #82 overall. That projection is built on a 18% carry share.

Projected points
280
PPR, full 2026 season
Per week
16.5
projected PPR points
Model rank
#82
QB13 at his position
ADP
83.7
average draft pick (Sleeper)
Tier
2
our positional tier

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What's behind the projection

Carry share18%share of his team's rushing attempts
Snap share97th pcthow often he's on the field, vs. his position
Team quality59th pcthis offense's opponent-adjusted rating

Frequently asked

Should I draft Justin Herbert in 2026 fantasy football?

At his ADP, yes. Justin Herbert's ADP of 83.7 sits within a round of our model's #82 overall rank. The market has him about right.

What round should Justin Herbert go in 2026 fantasy drafts?

Justin Herbert is being drafted around pick 84 (round 7 of a 12-team draft). Our model values him at #82 overall, a round-7 pick.

What is Justin Herbert's 2026 fantasy projection?

Our model projects Justin Herbert for 280 PPR points in 2026, 16.5 points per week, making him the QB13 in our rankings. The projection blends our custom pipeline with consensus and updates weekly through draft season.

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Projections from our custom pipeline blended with consensus, built on nflverse data · refreshed through draft season · rounds assume a 12-team draft.

Justin Herbert Fantasy Outlook 2026: Projections, Rankings, ADP | The Box Score