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Patrick Mahomes: 2026 Fantasy Outlook

Our model projects Patrick Mahomes for 209 PPR points in 2026 (12.3 per week), ranking him QB29 and #198 overall. That projection is built on a 15% carry share. The market drafts Patrick Mahomes around pick 99 (round 9), a full round ahead of our model's #198 overall — you'll have to pay above our projection to roster him.

Projected points
209
PPR, full 2026 season
Per week
12.3
projected PPR points
Model rank
#198
QB29 at his position
ADP
99.0
average draft pick (Sleeper)
Tier
3
our positional tier

What's behind the projection

Carry share15%share of his team's rushing attempts
Snap share97th pcthow often he's on the field, vs. his position
Team quality66th pcthis offense's opponent-adjusted rating

Frequently asked

Should I draft Patrick Mahomes in 2026 fantasy football?

Only at a discount. The market drafts Patrick Mahomes around pick 99 (round 9), a full round ahead of our model's #198 overall — you'll have to pay above our projection to roster him.

What round should Patrick Mahomes go in 2026 fantasy drafts?

Patrick Mahomes is being drafted around pick 99 (round 9 of a 12-team draft). Our model values him at #198 overall, a round-17 pick.

What is Patrick Mahomes's 2026 fantasy projection?

Our model projects Patrick Mahomes for 209 PPR points in 2026 — 12.3 points per week — making him the QB29 in our rankings. The projection blends our custom pipeline with consensus and updates weekly through draft season.

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Projections from our custom pipeline blended with consensus, built on nflverse data · refreshed through draft season · rounds assume a 12-team draft.

Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Outlook 2026 — Projections, Rankings, ADP — The Box Score