Weekly Slate
Every game in the week at a glance: the model's line vs. the market, the projected (or final) score, and each offense against the other side's defense.
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Where the model line comes from
Each game card starts from FVOA-style team ratings: every offense and defense graded on a per-play basis, opponent adjusted, with garbage time discounted. Rating differences plus home field produce a projected margin and total, and the margin converts to a win probability. The unit bars on each card show the matchup underneath the number — a middling offense against a bottom-five defense is a different bet than the same offense against a top-five one, even at the same spread.
How to read a gap against the market
The interesting column is the disagreement. When our line and the market line differ by a point, that's noise. Sustained, directional gaps are what our betting model trades on — selectively, because the NFL market prices most things well. What it prices correctly, and the narrow places it historically hasn't, is the subject of what NFL betting markets price correctly; the model's tracked record and this week's plays live on the betting page.
Before, during, and after kickoff
Cards show the projected score until kickoff, link to live scores and in-game win probability while games run, and swap to the final score with the against-the-spread result once played — the projection stays visible next to the result, so the model is graded in public rather than quietly replaced. Tap any card for the full game page with the fantasy angle on every starter in the matchup.